Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:49:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x1834…2a51
crypto · 14 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$18 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$63 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 14 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days−$63
14 days−$63
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$13 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$12 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $11 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $12 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $11 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -6.0% -15.0% 64% 64% -34.4%
≤30d 14 -6.0% -15.0% 64% 64% -34.4%
≤90d 14 -6.0% -15.0% 64% 64% -34.4%
all 14 -6.0% -15.0% 64% 64% -34.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 64% -34.4%
10% -23.1% 50% -40.6%
15% -30.6% 43% -46.4%
20% -37.4% 29% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records