Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:21:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1833…cc31 sports 781 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,287 (-6%) realized −$1,229 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%343W / 414L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day49.5pace
Fees−$227est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$353now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days−$64
14 days−$522
30 days−$1,260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$1,657
crypto 31% −$470
other 13% −$397
world 0% −$50
weather 0% +$26
politics 0% −$1
finance 0% −$9
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +6.3% -3.8% 45% 45% -13.6%
≤30d 363 -9.6% -18.2% 43% 42% -22.9%
≤90d 757 -9.2% -17.8% 45% 43% -20.2%
all 757 -9.2% -17.8% 45% 43% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 43% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 40% -27.8%
15% -32.9% 32% -34.8%
20% -39.4% 25% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$353
Realized−$1,229
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses343 / 414
Est. fees paid−$227
Open positions24
Markets (closed)757 / 781
History coverage43d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day49.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 757 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 11¢ 50¢ $5 $23 +$18 (+359%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Over 43¢ 43¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 39¢ 40¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 22¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-29%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-38%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 30¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-82%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $62 $1 −$61 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 296 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$6 +126%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $26 +$96 +374%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$8 +41%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$13 +251%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $2 +$7 +359%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$6 +121%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +200%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$1 -5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 +$11 +49%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$16 +308%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 −$22 -62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $121 +$30 +25%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $56 −$55 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$15 +149%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -5%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $96 +$26 +27%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $15 +$10 +65%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $10 +$6 +57%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $15 +$15 +101%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 0m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 29m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 38m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 38m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 40m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 43m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $12 46m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 30¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $6 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 9h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 16h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 16h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 73¢ $20 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $29 24h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 76¢ $18 24h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 16¢ $9 24h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $11 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $353.40 · official $353.50 (match) · 2329 history records