Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1832…805e crypto 238 markets active 7d ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate73%173W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$15
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -57.4% -61.5% 38% 38% -61.3%
≤30d 184 +7.7% -2.6% 72% 66% -7.8%
≤90d 238 +3.7% -6.1% 73% 60% -10.8%
all 238 +3.7% -6.1% 73% 60% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 60% -10.8%
10% -15.1% 35% -19.3%
15% -23.3% 23% -27.1%
20% -30.8% 13% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses173 / 65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)238 / 238
History coverage69d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 238 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 544 history records