Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:47:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x182e…28ff crypto 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 562d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%131W / 6L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$32
other 25% −$8
politics 10% +$1
tech 9% +$1
economics 4% +$1
weather 3% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 24 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 110 -0.6% -10.0% 97% 0% -9.5%
all 137 -0.8% -10.3% 96% 1% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 1% -8.9%
10% -18.8% 1% -17.6%
15% -26.7% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.16 per $1 lost it wins $3.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

562d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses131 / 6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)137 / 140
History coverage562d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will Watani Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $68 $0 +0%
Will Chris Carr win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026? Jun 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Leonard Jackson advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Nicholas Thompson advance from the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 21 $47 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? Jun 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 02 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $20 $0 +1%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control Jun 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? May 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $560 in May? May 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 30 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 29 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 26? May 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 26? May 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 18-24? May 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25? May 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24? May 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 23? May 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will "MOULIN by László NEMES" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film F May 24 $13 $0 +1%
Will "GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Can May 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 23 $9 $0 +1%
Will Tim Skelton be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon? May 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 22? May 22 $22 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? May 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 19? May 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 19 $46 $0 +1%
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4.5m and 5m? May 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Rickie Fowler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 May 11-17? May 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $79 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? May 13 $13 $0 +1%
Will Jacy Todd win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary elect May 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 12? May 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? May 13 $21 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $24 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $23 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $68 2d
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $27 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $24 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $26 22d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 22d
Will Leonard Jackson advance from the 2026 California Governor primary BUY No 100¢ $20 23d
Will Nicholas Thompson advance from the 2026 California Governor prima BUY No 100¢ $28 24d
Will Nicholas Thompson advance from the 2026 California Governor prima BUY No 100¢ $19 25d
Will Watani Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamen BUY No 100¢ $12 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 25d
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? BUY No 99¢ $13 26d
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $560 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY No 99¢ $20 26d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $21 27d
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $33 27d
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control BUY No 100¢ $27 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 28d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $22 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $26 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $27 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25? BUY No 99¢ $16 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $21 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.07 · official $56.07 (match) · 283 history records