Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

18 0x182c…bd30 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$6 (-7%) realized −$6 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$9per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$3 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$76

Realized−$6

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions7

Markets (closed)2 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$9

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	49¢	48¢	$45	$45	−$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Yes	29¢	28¢	$9	$9	−$0 (-2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	3¢	4¢	$5	$6	+$1 (+19%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+9%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-6%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$3	−$3	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$9	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	49¢	$46	1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	18h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$4	18h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$4	18h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	18h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$4	18h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$4	18h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	7¢	$3	18h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.04 · official $76.04 (match) · 9 history records