Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:55:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x182b…f3d3
sports · 67 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$70,254 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$33,072 · open +$48,359
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$263,972
Realized−$33,072
Unrealized+$48,359
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses31 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1,868
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage640d
Avg bet$16,238
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 2 History 65 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,148
7 days+$3,148
14 days+$5,333
30 days−$27,936
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 70¢ 84¢ $188,661 $227,209 +$38,548 (+20%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 70¢ 96¢ $26,951 $36,762 +$9,811 (+36%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,750 $0 −$1,750 (-100%)
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Recrent Team - Game 1 Winner Nix Team 75¢ 0¢ $3,740 $0 −$3,740 (-100%)
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Xtreme Gaming 44¢ 0¢ $1,700 $0 −$1,700 (-100%)
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner PARIVISION 50¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Team Falcons 45¢ 0¢ $5,390 $0 −$5,390 (-100%)
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BetBoom Team 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dota 2: Miposhka Team vs SoloTeam - Game 2 Winner Miposhka Team 62¢ 0¢ $1,500 $0 −$1,500 (-100%)
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Team Spirit 48¢ 0¢ $8,012 $0 −$8,012 (-100%)
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Virtus.pro 48¢ 0¢ $3,650 $0 −$3,650 (-100%)
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Team Spirit 48¢ 0¢ $4,800 $0 −$4,800 (-100%)
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner PlayTime 34¢ 0¢ $1,500 $0 −$1,500 (-100%)
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Team Falcons 53¢ 0¢ $8,970 $0 −$8,970 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Team Liquid 63¢ 0¢ $3,557 $0 −$3,557 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $12,601 +$3,148 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $5,110 +$2,185 +43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $74,687 +$3,424 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 28 $211,004 +$12,996 +6%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $7,243 −$2,134 -30%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner May 23 $9,067 −$8,970 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner May 23 $5,423 −$5,390 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $8,084 −$8,012 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 23 $4,822 −$4,800 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 23 $1,197 +$1,728 +144%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 23 $3,000 +$1,995 +66%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner May 23 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 23 $2,545 +$2,955 +116%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $1,750 −$1,750 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $1,225 +$2,275 +186%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 22 $3,199 +$2,572 +80%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 22 $2,004 −$3 -0%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 22 $1,530 −$1,500 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $1,729 −$1,700 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 22 $1,580 +$1,797 +114%
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Recrent Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Grou May 22 $54 +$48 +90%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $20,332 +$10,943 +54%
Dota 2: Miposhka Team vs SoloTeam - Game 2 Winner May 21 $1,517 −$1,500 -99%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 20 $2,204 +$1,545 +70%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $15,363 +$7,222 +47%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $3,560 −$3,557 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $3,707 −$3,650 -98%
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Recrent Team - Game 1 Winner May 20 $3,740 −$3,740 -100%
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) May 20 $8,118 −$393 -5%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 20 $68 −$68 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 20 $99 −$99 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 20 $4,410 −$4,410 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 20 $6,500 −$6,500 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 20 $20,069 −$20,069 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs May 20 $17,705 −$17,705 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $26,103 +$3,573 +14%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 19 $4,939 +$2,719 +55%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $17,670 +$8,369 +47%
Dota 2: Travoman Team vs Miposhka Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battl May 19 $26 +$9 +35%
Dota 2: Travoman Team vs Miposhka Team - Game 2 Winner May 19 $990 +$510 +52%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Feb 16 $29,448 +$8,363 +28%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 13 $15,028 −$2,917 -19%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 23 $30,741 −$18,069 -59%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $65,262 +$3,646 +6%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $12,578 +$7,831 +62%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 29 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $6,501 +$201 +3%
Will Donald Trump say "million" 10 or more times during his North Caro Sep 22 $1,593 −$1,593 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his North Carolina rall Sep 22 $1,915 −$1,908 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "border" 15 or more times during his North Carol Sep 22 $3,073 −$3,073 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 57% +$52,486
sports 22% −$39,576
politics 10% +$8,608
other 8% +$11,426
economics 3% −$18,045
tech 0% +$389
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $330 2m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $9 19m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $3 26m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $239 26m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $13 29m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $116 39m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $59 45m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $7,675 57m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $62 58m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $9 58m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $614 59m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $841 59m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $87 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $482 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $48 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $371 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $50 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $53 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $50 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $96 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 2h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 2h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 2h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 2h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 2h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $341 2h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $58 2h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $96 2h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $40 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +25.0% +13.1% 100% 100% +13.1%
≤30d 40 -17.1% -25.0% 48% 42% -14.4%
≤90d 40 -17.1% -25.0% 48% 42% -14.4%
all 65 -10.8% -19.3% 48% 40% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 40% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 37% -22.1%
15% -34.1% 31% -29.6%
20% -40.5% 25% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $263,971.96 · official $261,283.09 · 1522 history records