Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:13:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x182a…f847
weather · 352 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$9,570 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8,571 · open +$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,102
Realized+$8,571
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses236 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)350 / 352
History coverage62d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day55.5
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 350 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$187
7 days+$1,155
14 days+$2,842
30 days+$4,079
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? No 88¢ 89¢ $1,088 $1,102 +$14 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Yes 50¢ 35¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $278 +$12 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $512 +$35 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $199 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $426 +$21 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1,241 +$103 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $257 +$21 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$11 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $482 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $77 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 15? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 27? Jun 11 $36 −$11 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 21? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 7? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or higher on May 8? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on May 29? Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 2? Jun 11 $8 +$6 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 15? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 2? Jun 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C or higher on May 6? Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 7? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 2? Jun 11 $68 −$68 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 7? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 7? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 15? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 7? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 16? Jun 11 $507 −$456 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 7? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on June 7? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $725 +$308 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $217 +$11 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $435 +$66 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $635 +$208 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $78 +$10 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $688 +$32 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $149 +$19 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $126 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $805 +$80 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$9 +697%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1,144 +$173 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $829 −$282 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $202 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $952 +$55 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $78 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $45 +$49 +109%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1,127 +$488 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $72 −$43 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $710 +$174 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$8,601
crypto 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $59 15m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 16m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $44 16m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $68 16m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $270 16m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $12 16m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $75 16m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $6 16m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $3 16m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $5 16m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $59 17m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $35 17m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $6 17m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $9 18m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $24 18m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $15 18m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $22 18m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $12 21m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 40¢ $9 22m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 22m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 42¢ $19 22m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $35 24m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $20 24m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $78 36m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 50¢ $38 38m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 70¢ $21 41m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $7 41m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $289 47m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $11 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -16.4% -24.3% 54% 21% -3.1%
≤30d 175 -1.4% -10.8% 69% 37% -1.3%
≤90d 350 +1.4% -8.3% 67% 40% +0.7%
all 350 +1.4% -8.3% 67% 40% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover55.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 40% +0.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 23% -8.9%
15% -25.1% 14% -17.7%
20% -32.4% 9% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,101.67 · official $1,101.54 (match) · 3500 history records