Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1829…71e4 crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$19 (-5%) realized +$2 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%26W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$34
14 days+$12
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +21.9% +10.3% 67% 67% +12.7%
≤30d 53 -4.3% -13.4% 49% 49% -15.1%
≤90d 53 -4.3% -13.4% 49% 49% -15.1%
all 53 -4.3% -13.4% 49% 49% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 49% -15.1%
10% -21.7% 47% -23.2%
15% -29.3% 47% -30.6%
20% -36.2% 45% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses26 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage16d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$7 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$5 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$6 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 09 $15 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$21 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 09 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 01 $12 −$10 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 01 $13 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.16 (match) · 121 history records