Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:33:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1829…4bfd world 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$58 (-6%) realized −$53 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%23W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$115
other 18% +$25
world 11% +$51
politics 10% −$13
culture 3% −$5
sports 1% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +61.6% +46.2% 73% 73% +10.1%
≤30d 11 +61.6% +46.2% 73% 73% +10.1%
≤90d 15 +18.5% +7.2% 53% 53% -42.2%
all 44 +15.9% +4.9% 52% 50% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.9% 50% -16.0%
10% -5.2% 45% -24.0%
15% -14.3% 41% -31.4%
20% -22.7% 30% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$13 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized−$53
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses23 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)44 / 58
History coverage112d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? No 74¢ 74¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 59¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 25¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 23¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 42¢ 33¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $57 −$38 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$32 +103%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 19 $61 −$60 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 19 $110 −$110 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 17 $149 +$52 +35%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Mar 17 $10 +$4 +45%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 17 $5 +$7 +144%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 16 $31 +$12 +39%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Mar 16 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 16 $6 +$2 +38%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $5 +$4 +79%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $5 +$4 +89%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $5 +$6 +113%
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more? Mar 16 $10 +$4 +45%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $2 +$2 +89%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 08 $5 +$1 +22%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 01 $27 −$1 -5%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $10 +$6 +64%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $2 +$18 +900%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Enterprise Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Clash Gro Feb 25 $8 −$8 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Feb 25 $30 +$3 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $21 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 32m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 35m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $9 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $34 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 47m
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.30 · official $153.31 (match) · 111 history records