Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:42:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1828…6946 weather 1409 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$117 (-1%) realized −$71 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%556W / 846L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$16
14 days+$50
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 70% −$332
sports 14% −$211
other 12% +$229
crypto 3% −$20
culture 0% +$18
politics 0% +$16
world 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -39.1% -44.9% 29% 29% -5.0%
≤30d 163 -41.8% -47.3% 23% 23% -21.0%
≤90d 1349 -10.6% -19.1% 39% 36% -16.8%
all 1402 -9.2% -17.8% 40% 37% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 37% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 35% -21.3%
15% -32.9% 31% -28.9%
20% -39.4% 27% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$71
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses556 / 846
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1402 / 1409
History coverage115d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1402 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 68¢ 52¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-24%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Saudi Arabia 68¢ 18¢ $50 $13 −$37 (-74%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 20? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 19? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 20? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 20 $30 +$16 +54%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $15 +$7 +46%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -7%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$9 +93%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5 +$5 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 +$3 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 +$29 +354%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $11 +$6 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 11? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 11? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 3? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $11 +$10 +93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$8 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 3? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 3? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 5? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 10? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 9? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 10? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 7? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +115%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$3 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$18 +218%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$6 +116%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$5 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 +$17 +236%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $30 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 68¢ $50 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 21h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $5 21h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $46 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O BUY 24¢ $10 24h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 67¢ $20 24h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $3 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 10¢ $3 34h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 20? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 34h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 20? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 34h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 36h
Türkiye leading at halftime? SELL Yes 34¢ $10 39h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $10 2d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $15 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $5 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $11 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $11 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.09 · official $48.83 (match) · 3332 history records