Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:49:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
18 0x1827…a4ab other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized −$37 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$453now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$103
14 days−$44
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$49
sports 19% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -28.6% -35.4% 60% 20% -26.6%
≤30d 13 -20.5% -28.0% 62% 15% -12.9%
≤90d 13 -20.5% -28.0% 62% 15% -12.9%
all 13 -20.5% -28.0% 62% 15% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 15% -12.9%
10% -34.9% 8% -21.2%
15% -41.2% 8% -28.8%
20% -47.0% 8% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$32 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$453
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage11d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $300 $351 +$51 (+17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $87 −$60 -69%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $121 +$9 +8%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $140 +$10 +8%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 20 $122 +$13 +11%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $204 −$76 -37%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $100 −$2 -2%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $115 +$7 +6%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $101 +$55 +55%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $106 +$9 +8%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $100 +$3 +3%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $27 1h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 93¢ $121 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? BUY No 93¢ $140 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 31¢ $121 6d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 90¢ $122 6d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $204 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 0¢ $5 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 2¢ $15 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL No 90¢ $99 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 91¢ $100 7d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 94¢ $115 7d
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 92¢ $106 7d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $101 7d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? BUY No 97¢ $100 8d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY No 94¢ $100 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $87 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $308 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $452.79 · official $452.79 (match) · 37 history records