Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:05:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1825…a162 crypto 1575 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$312 (+1%) realized +$312 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%398W / 1368L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$341
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 388 -65.0% -68.3% 18% 18% -61.5%
≤30d 720 -27.8% -34.7% 38% 38% -41.7%
≤90d 1766 -11.5% -19.9% 23% 23% -16.6%
all 1766 -11.5% -19.9% 23% 23% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 23% -16.6%
10% -27.6% 23% -24.6%
15% -34.6% 22% -31.9%
20% -41.0% 21% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.6 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$312
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses398 / 1368
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1766 / 1575
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1766 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$26 -8049%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$49 -40398%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$24 -7651%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$24 -8549%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$80 -22311%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -752%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$22 -31183%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$26 -5666%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$27 -20031%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$44 -120%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$25 -7660%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $20 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records