Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:06:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1820…2aa0 crypto 1204 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,016 (-4%) realized −$1,032 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate64%765W / 437L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day39.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days−$38
14 days−$25
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$1,371
weather 4% −$188
sports 1% +$173
other 0% −$62
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 +3.4% -6.5% 50% 43% -11.9%
≤30d 578 +2.9% -6.9% 65% 47% -9.0%
≤90d 1202 -2.5% -11.8% 64% 48% -14.2%
all 1202 -2.5% -11.8% 64% 48% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 48% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 31% -22.4%
15% -28.0% 20% -29.9%
20% -35.0% 12% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$1,032
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses765 / 437
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1202 / 1204
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day39.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 100¢ $5 $21 +$16 (+316%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $33 −$12 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 −$19 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 +$13 +26%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -60%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$31 +530%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $62 +$57 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $106 +$29 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 +$27 +650%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $34 +$48 +141%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$11 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$4 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $70 +$30 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$12 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 42m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 35¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $50 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a BUY 7¢ $10 11h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 12h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 12h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 12h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 12h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 12h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $62 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $29 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 42h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.82 · official $20.82 (match) · 3500 history records