Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:36:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x181c…60db other 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (295 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day295.0pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% $0
world 21% $0
other 17% −$1
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -10.8% -19.3% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -10.8% -19.3% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -10.8% -19.3% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 9 -10.8% -19.3% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover295.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 0% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -34.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -40.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
11.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day295.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $271 $0 -0%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $60 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $116 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 25 $848 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $91 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $31 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 97¢ $47 0m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $47 0m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $30 4m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 97¢ $37 7m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $37 7m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 97¢ $37 11m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $37 11m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 97¢ $30 20m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $30 20m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 97¢ $30 30m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $30 30m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 97¢ $30 34m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $30 34m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 97¢ $30 36m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $30 36m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 97¢ $30 37m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $30 37m
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $29 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $29 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $43 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $22 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.02 · official $163.02 (match) · 295 history records