Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:22:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
18 0x1818…c788 other 12 markets active 3d ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$342 (-20%) realized −$342 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$367
14 days−$367
30 days−$367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$401
sports 6% +$44
world 6% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -8.9% -17.5% 50% 50% -25.5%
≤30d 10 -8.9% -17.5% 50% 50% -25.5%
≤90d 10 -8.9% -17.5% 50% 50% -25.5%
all 12 -4.0% -13.1% 58% 50% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 50% -23.3%
10% -21.4% 50% -30.7%
15% -29.0% 50% -37.4%
20% -36.0% 25% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$156 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$342
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage169d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $177 −$167 -94%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $113 +$64 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $79 +$35 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $208 −$125 -60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $381 −$379 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $34 +$53 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $375 +$156 +42%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $26 +$9 +37%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Dec 31 $100 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $76 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $177 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $113 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $113 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $79 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $78 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $208 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $208 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $381 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $34 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $375 5d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan SELL Japan 100¢ $35 143d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan BUY Japan 73¢ $26 143d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $104 167d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $100 171d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records