Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:14:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
18 0x1817…3935 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$2
other 30% +$1
finance 6% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
politics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 3% $0
weather 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 30% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 30% 0% -9.0%
all 29 +0.9% -8.7% 52% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 0% -9.0%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.81 per $1 lost it wins $3.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage461d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $38 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $46 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $63 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $18 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $44 +$3 +7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $35 $0 -0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 26 $7 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea Jun 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $1 $0 +3%
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 06 $15 $0 +2%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump dance in March? Mar 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 30 $2 $0 +9%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Mar 28 $13 $0 -1%
Will Arkansas win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Another crypto hack over $1b before April? Mar 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? Mar 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $38 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $38 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $38 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $38 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $35 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $35 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $28 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $5 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $18 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $18 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $35 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $35 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $29 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $29 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $22 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $35 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $35 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 85¢ $39 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $39 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 21d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $35 21d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 21d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 SELL No 97¢ $7 357d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records