Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:06:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1815…1efc sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6,693 (+43%) realized +$6,685 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate80%16W / 4L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$672per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$452now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$141
14 days+$59
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$6,683
crypto 11% +$32
other 3% −$23
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +41.6% +28.1% 100% 100% +28.0%
≤30d 4 -3.4% -12.6% 75% 50% -3.0%
≤90d 8 -12.0% -20.4% 75% 25% -6.5%
all 20 +15.8% +4.7% 80% 35% +30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.7% 35% +30.7%
10% -5.3% 35% +18.2%
15% -14.4% 30% +6.8%
20% -22.8% 15% -3.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,242) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +39% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$572 vs −$616 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.71 per $1 lost it wins $3.71
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$452
Realized+$6,685
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses16 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage125d
Avg bet$672
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $274 $275 +$2 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 93¢ 98¢ $149 $157 +$8 (+5%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 48¢ 44¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $179 +$71 +40%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $160 +$70 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $95 −$94 -98%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 10 $388 +$12 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 07 $1 $0 +10%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 01 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March? Apr 02 $366 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 20 $199 +$1 +1%
Wizards vs. Hawks Feb 27 $5,791 +$1,309 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 25? Feb 26 $50 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Bucks Feb 26 $1,488 +$4,712 +317%
Celtics vs. Suns Feb 25 $1,242 +$558 +45%
Raptors vs. Bucks Feb 23 $649 +$451 +70%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Feb 20 $1,254 −$1,254 -100%
Heat vs. Hawks Feb 20 $1,092 −$1,092 -100%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Feb 20 $1,248 +$1,952 +156%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 15? Feb 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 15 $199 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $276 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $149 27h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $179 29h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $160 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $95 8d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? BUY No 97¢ $167 42d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? BUY No 97¢ $162 42d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? BUY No 97¢ $27 42d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? BUY No 97¢ $32 42d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $25 42d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 44d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 94¢ $94 69d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 48¢ $22 84d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $366 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? BUY Yes 99¢ $199 109d
Wizards vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 83¢ $1,660 112d
Wizards vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 81¢ $2 112d
Wizards vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 81¢ $4 112d
Wizards vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 81¢ $2 112d
Wizards vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 81¢ $9 112d
Wizards vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 81¢ $21 112d
Wizards vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 81¢ $43 112d
Wizards vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 81¢ $21 112d
Wizards vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 81¢ $2 112d
Wizards vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 81¢ $2 112d
Wizards vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 81¢ $28 112d
Wizards vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 81¢ $4 112d
Wizards vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 81¢ $26 112d
Wizards vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 81¢ $298 112d
Wizards vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 81¢ $7 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $451.53 · official $451.54 (match) · 241 history records