Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:01:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x1812…c143
crypto · 1244 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$352 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$686 · open −$334
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$31
Realized+$686
Unrealized−$334
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses827 / 413
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1240 / 1244
History coverage66d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 4 History 1240 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$953
7 days+$90
14 days−$236
30 days+$685
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 78¢ 100¢ $22 $28 +$6 (+28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $300 $3 −$297 (-99%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 35¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner T1 52¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner T1 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1? Under 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $48 −$47 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $56 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $149 +$109 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $112 +$41 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$48 +93%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? Jun 12 $30 +$28 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $57 −$46 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $44 −$43 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $72 +$54 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $31 +$30 +98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $32 +$29 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$12 +60%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $21 −$20 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +63%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs The Ruddy Sack (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 71% +$882
sports 23% −$767
other 5% +$258
weather 2% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $309 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $48 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $21 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $56 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $149 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $112 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $51 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $9 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $57 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 52¢ $25 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $21 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 35¢ $18 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 52¢ $32 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 436 -4.4% -13.5% 63% 56% -8.8%
≤30d 629 +1.1% -8.5% 69% 60% -6.1%
≤90d 1240 +0.8% -8.8% 67% 59% -7.8%
all 1240 +0.8% -8.8% 67% 59% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 59% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 47% -16.6%
15% -25.5% 33% -24.7%
20% -32.8% 20% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.78 · official $107.05 · 3193 history records