Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:15:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
18 0x1810…a73e sports 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$93 (+23%) realized +$45 · open +$48
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$38
14 days+$75
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$149
other 6% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +13.0% +2.2% 56% 56% +10.6%
≤30d 15 +24.1% +12.3% 53% 53% +5.8%
≤90d 21 +28.1% +15.9% 57% 57% +10.3%
all 21 +28.1% +15.9% 57% 57% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.9% 57% +10.3%
10% +4.8% 57% -0.2%
15% -5.3% 57% -9.9%
20% -14.6% 57% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$15 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage40d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 100¢ $35 $83 +$48 (+138%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots Jun 26 $15 −$9 -57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $25 +$25 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 +$19 +74%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $25 +$18 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 +$15 +97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $15 +$20 +134%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 +$18 +115%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$33 +324%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 31 $30 −$30 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $15 +$16 +105%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $15 −$15 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 May 21 $15 +$15 +101%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $11 −$11 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 21 $30 −$5 -15%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 May 20 $15 +$16 +109%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5 May 18 $15 +$10 +65%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 100.5 May 18 $15 +$10 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots SELL Yes 17¢ $7 4m
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots BUY Yes 38¢ $15 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $50 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $44 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 50¢ $25 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $44 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $25 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $25 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 36¢ $20 6d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 BUY Over $10 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $36 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $15 7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $15 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $14 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $43 12d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 23¢ $10 12d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 26d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 48¢ $15 28d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 40¢ $15 28d
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) BUY Spurs 39¢ $11 36d
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) SELL Spurs 37¢ $11 36d
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $15 36d
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) SELL Spurs 47¢ $14 36d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 49¢ $15 36d
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $15 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.29 · official $83.29 (match) · 40 history records