Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:57:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
18 0x1810…ac44 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$180 (-7%) realized −$175 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +3.3% -6.6% 67% 56% -12.7%
≤30d 9 +3.3% -6.6% 67% 56% -12.7%
≤90d 9 +3.3% -6.6% 67% 56% -12.7%
all 9 +3.3% -6.6% 67% 56% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 56% -12.7%
10% -15.5% 56% -21.1%
15% -23.7% 33% -28.7%
20% -31.1% 22% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$285 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized−$175
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Acend 47¢ 44¢ $200 $186 −$14 (-7%)
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs ECHO 67¢ 56¢ $33 $27 −$5 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $102 +$121 +119%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 27 $566 +$185 +33%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 26 $377 +$391 +104%
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P Jun 26 $663 −$656 -99%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Playoff Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs Endless Journey (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 26 $82 +$8 +10%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs lilmix (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qua Jun 26 $136 +$33 +24%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick Wor Jun 26 $100 +$41 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 48¢ $102 56m
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs SELL ECHO 50¢ $49 57m
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 47¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY ECHO 67¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $222 1h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series SELL Game Hunters 100¢ $751 1h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Game Hunters 82¢ $152 1h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Game Hunters 82¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Game Hunters 81¢ $111 1h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Game Hunters 70¢ $101 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 45¢ $102 3h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Game Hunters 60¢ $101 4h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Yawara Esports 48¢ $102 23h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ SELL MIBR Academy 100¢ $768 24h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY MIBR Academy 48¢ $377 26h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 70¢ $504 27h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 59¢ $102 28h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 35¢ $41 29h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 36¢ $15 29h
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Playoff BUY MASQ 73¢ $101 29h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs Endless Journey (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Endless Journey 100¢ $90 29h
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs lilmix (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qua SELL NEW VISION 100¢ $168 29h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs Endless Journey (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Endless Journey 91¢ $82 31h
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs lilmix (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qua BUY NEW VISION 80¢ $136 33h
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick Wor BUY Yawara Esports 70¢ $100 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.38 · official $213.38 (match) · 26 history records