Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:27:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
18 0x180d…7222 crypto 278 markets active 1h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,804 (-1%) realized −$2,804 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate92%255W / 21L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,137per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$2
14 days+$12
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,837
finance 0% +$1
other 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 92% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 34 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 128 +0.4% -9.1% 95% 0% -9.1%
all 276 -0.9% -10.4% 92% 4% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 4% -10.3%
10% -18.9% 3% -18.9%
15% -26.8% 1% -26.8%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$1,005) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$330 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized−$2,804
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses255 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)276 / 278
History coverage185d
Avg bet$1,137
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 24? Jun 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $100 −$4 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 23? Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 23? Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? Jun 19 $600 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,009 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,008 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,007 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,006 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,005 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,003 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? Jun 11 $998 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $997 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $994 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $993 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 7? Jun 07 $992 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $991 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 5? Jun 05 $989 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 03 $986 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 2? Jun 02 $985 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? Jun 01 $980 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $979 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? May 30 $972 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 29 $967 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 28 $965 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $959 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 26? May 26 $958 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $954 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 24? May 23 $801 −$59 -7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 23? May 23 $1,007 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 22 $1,006 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? May 22 $1,002 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? May 20 $1,001 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 19? May 19 $1,493 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 18? May 18 $600 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 18? May 18 $687 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 17? May 18 $799 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 16? May 16 $581 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 16? May 16 $900 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? May 15 $1,478 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 15? May 15 $801 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $657 +$10 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 15 $254 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $100 40m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 95¢ $95 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $100 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $100 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 21h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 32h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $20 42h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $600 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,009 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,008 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,007 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1,006 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1,005 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1,003 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $998 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $997 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $994 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $993 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $992 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $991 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $989 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $986 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $985 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.90 · official $199.00 (match) · 695 history records