Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x180c…cd04 sports 721 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,187 (-1%) realized −$1,684 · open +$497
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%314W / 403L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day54.1pace
Fees−$2,433est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,096now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 60d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$4,938
crypto 0% +$75
other 0% −$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -27.9% -34.8% 38% 37% -22.6%
≤30d 255 -5.6% -14.6% 47% 45% -9.4%
≤90d 717 -8.6% -17.3% 44% 41% -13.4%
all 717 -8.6% -17.3% 44% 41% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 41% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 38% -21.7%
15% -32.5% 34% -29.3%
20% -39.1% 31% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$116 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$1,096
Realized−$1,684
Unrealized+$497
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses314 / 403
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$2,433
Open positions4
Markets (closed)717 / 721
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$164
Trades / day54.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 717 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 42¢ 62¢ $302 $443 +$140 (+46%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs ex-RUBY 32¢ 100¢ $100 $310 +$210 (+210%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 48¢ 100¢ $96 $200 +$104 (+108%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner ex-RUBY 70¢ 100¢ $100 $143 +$43 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 255 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $677 −$670 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $93 −$92 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $509 +$741 +146%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $597 +$182 +30%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $208 +$41 +20%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $224 +$326 +146%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $11 −$11 -99%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $128 −$126 -99%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 19 $152 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $113 +$187 +165%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $220 −$217 -98%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $420 −$420 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $130 −$130 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $255 +$244 +96%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $187 +$62 +33%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $550 −$549 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $577 −$570 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $58 −$58 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $187 +$113 +60%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 17 $508 −$25 -5%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $487 −$479 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $470 −$100 -21%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $120 +$80 +66%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $340 +$260 +76%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $254 +$246 +97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $85 −$85 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $285 −$285 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $458 +$541 +118%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $87 +$113 +129%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $178 −$175 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $478 +$771 +161%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $417 −$410 -98%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $51 +$27 +54%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $95 −$83 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $209 +$3 +2%
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Cloud Rising (+1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $119 −$25 -21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $403 +$86 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $250 +$249 +100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $107 −$105 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $79 −$78 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $66 −$65 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $207 −$202 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY ex-RUBY 32¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 70¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $137 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $97 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $171 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 21¢ $107 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 48¢ $53 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 48¢ $185 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 48¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 47¢ $238 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 45¢ $91 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 46¢ $93 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $509 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 47¢ $203 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 36¢ $354 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 31¢ $158 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 47¢ $122 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 47¢ $62 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 63¢ $249 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 47¢ $52 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 52¢ $25 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 52¢ $26 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 52¢ $36 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 52¢ $11 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 52¢ $1 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 52¢ $22 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 52¢ $35 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 52¢ $52 27h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $549 27h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 31¢ $93 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,095.53 · official $1,095.53 (match) · 3500 history records