Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1806…b69b sports 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$17 (+2%) realized −$2 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%9W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$21
other 30% +$55
world 6% +$42
crypto 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -9.1% -17.8% 28% 28% -5.3%
≤30d 32 -9.1% -17.8% 28% 28% -5.3%
≤90d 32 -9.1% -17.8% 28% 28% -5.3%
all 32 -9.1% -17.8% 28% 28% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 28% -5.3%
10% -25.6% 28% -14.3%
15% -32.8% 28% -22.6%
20% -39.4% 16% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$16 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses9 / 23
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 38
History coverage4d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 44¢ 60¢ $55 $74 +$19 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $37 +$18 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $27 +$42 +159%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$3 -6%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 −$9 -81%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$146 +473%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $58 −$45 -78%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$72 -71%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $101 +$39 +38%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $66 +$37 +57%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 +$73 +712%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $13 −$2 -19%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$35 +114%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $56 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $37 14h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Fran BUY 22¢ $31 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 3¢ $1 15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL 96¢ $69 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 36¢ $27 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AN BUY 9¢ $21 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $48 33h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AN BUY 12¢ $10 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY 8¢ $1 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY 9¢ $1 33h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 45¢ $1 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL 2¢ $2 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY 9¢ $10 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL 12¢ $7 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY 17¢ $10 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $176 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 35h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 10¢ $13 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 15¢ $30 35h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $58 46h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 46h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $139 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.02 · official $74.02 (match) · 57 history records