Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1802…6c3d sports 226 markets active 6d ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-8%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%107W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$13
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$71
other 13% −$17
weather 5% −$3
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -2.1% -11.4% 40% 40% -15.0%
≤30d 226 -7.4% -16.2% 47% 47% -18.0%
≤90d 226 -7.4% -16.2% 47% 47% -18.0%
all 226 -7.4% -16.2% 47% 47% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 47% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 43% -25.8%
15% -31.6% 35% -33.0%
20% -38.3% 26% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses107 / 119
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)226 / 226
History coverage15d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 226 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +73%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $3 +$3 +101%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 11 $3 +$2 +67%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +74%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +38%
Tucuman: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 11 $3 +$2 +70%
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 11 $4 +$1 +33%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $7 $0 -4%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 11 $6 $0 -3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 -5%
ITF Wuning: Yidi Yang vs Mai Hontama Jun 11 $10 −$5 -51%
ITF Wuning: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Sara Saito Jun 11 $8 +$6 +84%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $3 $0 -9%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $4 +$1 +31%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $3 +$2 +54%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $4 +$1 +18%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Wuning: Yexin Ma vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 09 $4 +$1 +29%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 09 $3 +$2 +46%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 09 $10 +$5 +52%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 08 $5 +$1 +15%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 08 $6 −$1 -11%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 08 $8 +$2 +29%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $3 +$2 +82%
Will Greece vs. Italy end in a draw? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +34%
Spread: Greece (-1.5) Jun 07 $4 +$1 +21%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 07 $4 +$1 +38%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $3 +$2 +86%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $4 +$1 +32%
ITF Sumter: Kristina Liutova vs Reese Brantmeier Jun 07 $3 +$2 +57%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 07 $6 −$1 -14%
ITF Montemor-O-Novo: Francisca Jorge vs Yeon Woo Ku Jun 07 $5 $0 -2%
Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $4 +$2 +60%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $4 $0 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $5 $0 -5%
Will FC Imabari win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. FC Imabari end in a draw? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 53¢ $3 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 59¢ $10 5d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) BUY Indiana Fever 56¢ $3 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 57¢ $3 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 49¢ $3 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 5d
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 59¢ $3 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 72¢ $5 5d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $3 5d
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 75¢ $1 5d
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 75¢ $3 5d
Tucuman: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 58¢ $3 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? SELL No 57¢ $7 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $4 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $3 6d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL No 73¢ $6 6d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $6 6d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 47¢ $2 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 84¢ $5 6d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 51¢ $5 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $5 6d
ITF Wuning: Yidi Yang vs Mai Hontama BUY Mai Hontama 49¢ $2 6d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 6d
ITF Wuning: Yidi Yang vs Mai Hontama BUY Yidi Yang 76¢ $4 6d
ITF Wuning: Yidi Yang vs Mai Hontama BUY Yidi Yang 78¢ $4 6d
ITF Wuning: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Sara Saito BUY Sara Saito 55¢ $1 6d
ITF Wuning: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Sara Saito BUY Sara Saito 55¢ $3 6d
ITF Wuning: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Sara Saito BUY Sara Saito 53¢ $3 6d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL No 44¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 556 history records