Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:39:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

18 0x1802…e44c sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

Total PnL +$5 (+35%) realized +$4 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip

Net edge-23%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown22%max

Avg bet$5per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-19.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-11.3%	-19.7%	50%	50%	+40.7%
≤30d	2	-11.3%	-19.7%	50%	50%	+40.7%
≤90d	2	-11.3%	-19.7%	50%	50%	+40.7%
all	2	-11.3%	-19.7%	50%	50%	+40.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-19.7%	50%	+40.7%
10%	-27.4%	50%	+27.2%
15%	-34.4%	50%	+15.0%
20%	-40.9%	50%	+3.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +56% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -11% · $-wt +56% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.49 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.49 per $1 lost it wins $5.49

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$4

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$5

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown22%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Yes	33¢	0¢	$6	$0	−$6 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Under	20¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$7	+$5	+77%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$1	39m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUY Yes	56¢	$5	1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	99¢	$13	4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	20¢	$1	5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	55¢	$7	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 5 history records