Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1802…d00f sports 409 markets active 103d ago coverage 78d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,191 (+3%) realized +$3,191 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%158W / 349L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$2,677
economics 31% −$2,128
crypto 8% −$1,579
other 8% −$1,739
world 0% −$18
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -89.2% -90.2% 3% 3% -98.2%
≤30d 98 -89.2% -90.2% 3% 3% -98.2%
≤90d 98 -89.2% -90.2% 3% 3% -98.2%
all 507 -25.0% -32.1% 31% 29% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.1% 29% -25.1%
10% ← realistic here -38.6% 27% -32.3%
15% -44.6% 25% -38.8%
20% -50.0% 21% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -102% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$123 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses158 / 349
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)507 / 409
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$286
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 507 Trades
no open positions (325 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sabres vs. Jets Jun 15 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2025-11-16? Jun 15 $123 −$123 -100%
Chiefs vs. Broncos Jun 15 $432 −$432 -100%
Fresno State vs. San Jose State Jun 15 $136 −$136 -100%
Spread: Pelicans (-3.5) Jun 15 $265 −$265 -100%
Pistons vs. Pacers Jun 15 $1,178 −$1,358 -115%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 15 $22 +$17 +74%
Seahawks vs. Rams: O/U 48.5 Jun 15 $140 −$140 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Jun 15 $90 −$93 -103%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Pistons vs. Grizzlies Jun 15 $157 −$157 -100%
Duke vs. Virginia Jun 15 $396 −$394 -100%
Spread: Bulls (-5.5) Jun 15 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2025-11-04? Jun 15 $62 −$71 -114%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Heat Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RU Saint-Gilloise end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in November? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Heat vs. 76ers Jun 15 $107 −$144 -135%
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Alia Jun 15 $380 −$380 -100%
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Jun 15 $368 −$368 -100%
Houston Cougars vs. Auburn Tigers Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Grenada win on 2025-11-14? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Kings (-1.5) Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Reds vs. Angels Jun 15 $1,225 −$1,225 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? Jun 15 $212 −$212 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-04? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Clemson vs. Louisville Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Blues (-1.5) Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
49ers vs. Cardinals Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026? Jun 15 $20 +$76 +378%
BYU vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Jun 15 $115 −$115 -100%
Open de Moselle: Arthur Cazaux vs Cameron Norrie Jun 15 $208 −$204 -98%
Sharks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Clippers Jun 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2025-11-15? Jun 15 $140 −$140 -100%
Rangers vs. Royals Jun 15 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Warriors vs. Pelicans Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Mavericks vs. Rockets Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Colts vs. Chiefs Jun 15 $167 −$167 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2025-11-18? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-9.5) Jun 15 $284 −$284 -100%
Will Alabama make the College Football Playoff? Jun 15 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Stars vs. Oilers Jun 15 $456 −$456 -100%
Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Eagles vs. Cowboys Jun 15 $3,560 −$3,560 -100%
Will Serbia win on 2025-11-16? Jun 15 $23 +$27 +120%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $141 102d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $141 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $49 103d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on March 3? SELL No 100¢ $337 103d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $282 103d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on March 3? BUY Yes $5 103d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on March 3? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 103d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on March 3? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 103d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on March 3? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 103d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on March 3? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 103d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on March 3? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 103d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on March 3? BUY No 89¢ $33 103d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on March 3? BUY No 90¢ $90 103d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on March 3? BUY No 92¢ $92 103d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on March 3? BUY No 92¢ $92 103d
Spread: Celtics (-1.5) BUY Bucks 48¢ $24 104d
Celtics vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 44¢ $106 104d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 69¢ $13 105d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 69¢ $299 105d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 69¢ $22 105d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 69¢ $9 105d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 71¢ $100 105d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 69¢ $2 105d
Spread: Houston Cougars (-2.5) SELL Kansas Jayhawks 62¢ $46 111d
Spread: Houston Cougars (-2.5) SELL Kansas Jayhawks 55¢ $0 111d
Spread: Houston Cougars (-2.5) SELL Kansas Jayhawks 55¢ $40 111d
Spread: Houston Cougars (-2.5) SELL Kansas Jayhawks 55¢ $42 111d
Spread: Houston Cougars (-2.5) BUY Kansas Jayhawks 53¢ $40 111d
Spread: Houston Cougars (-2.5) BUY Kansas Jayhawks 53¢ $117 111d
Spread: Houston Cougars (-2.5) BUY Kansas Jayhawks 53¢ $2 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records