Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:20:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17fd…2984 other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$8 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$61
14 days−$134
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$160
sports 7% +$23
world 1% −$2
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +24.5% +12.7% 50% 33% -20.8%
≤30d 34 +4.5% -5.4% 38% 29% -26.2%
≤90d 34 +4.5% -5.4% 38% 29% -26.2%
all 34 +4.5% -5.4% 38% 29% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 29% -26.2%
10% -14.5% 26% -33.3%
15% -22.7% 24% -39.7%
20% -30.3% 15% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage12d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 62¢ $64 $57 −$6 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $47 +$16 +35%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $177 −$129 -73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $153 +$24 +15%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 $0 -4%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$4 +365%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $22 +$12 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 $0 -5%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 17 $1 $0 -12%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $43 −$37 -86%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $53 −$52 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +95%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$15 -74%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $64 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $64 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $47 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 23¢ $48 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $177 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $177 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $153 8h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 6d
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 6d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 45¢ $5 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 48¢ $11 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $11 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 8d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 8d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $7 8d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 63¢ $6 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $32 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $33 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.48 · official $57.48 (match) · 62 history records