Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:42:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
17 0x17fb…2f88 sports 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$42 (-2%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%78W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$32
14 days−$4
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$76
other 18% +$37
tech 2% −$38
politics 1% −$8
world 0% −$9
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -5.3% -14.3% 62% 40% -14.7%
≤30d 107 -5.5% -14.5% 59% 45% -6.9%
≤90d 141 -4.6% -13.7% 55% 45% -10.7%
all 141 -4.6% -13.7% 55% 45% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 45% -10.7%
10% -22.0% 32% -19.3%
15% -29.5% 23% -27.1%
20% -36.4% 16% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses78 / 63
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage56d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $3 −$1 -18%
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $12 $0 +3%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $4 −$1 -24%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $12 +$2 +19%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $9 −$4 -44%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$48 +24%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +67%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +35%
Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $3 +$1 +26%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -36%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $1 +$1 +77%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $31 −$14 -44%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $5 +$2 +47%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $62 +$28 +45%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $7 +$2 +33%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $5 −$2 -31%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $49 −$46 -95%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $68 −$24 -35%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $6 +$3 +60%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $6 +$1 +18%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3 $0 -2%
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Savannah Broadus Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $13 −$13 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
ITF Caserta: Federica Urgesi vs Alessandra Mazzola Jun 07 $10 +$3 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $159 +$3 +2%
Libema Open, Qualification: James McCabe vs Alexander Maarten Jong Jun 07 $18 +$2 +11%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Hanyu Guo Jun 07 $23 +$4 +18%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Maddison Inglis vs Alycia Parks Jun 07 $91 −$48 -52%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Storm Hunter vs Aliaksandra Sasnovi Jun 07 $6 −$1 -19%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 07 $1 −$1 -53%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Hannah Klugman Jun 07 $1 $0 -4%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 07 $19 −$7 -38%
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Henrique Rocha Jun 06 $65 +$24 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan SELL Rebeka Masarova 81¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Nikola Bartunkova 60¢ $1 1h
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva SELL Anastasiia Sobolieva 62¢ $1 1h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet SELL Kyrian Jacquet 69¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda SELL Tommy Paul 88¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Diana Shnaider 36¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Maya Joint 92¢ $2 1h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang SELL Zhizhen Zhang 58¢ $2 1h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 63¢ $3 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda SELL Tommy Paul 71¢ $11 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 72¢ $1 1h
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 55¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 61¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 72¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 82¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 82¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 52¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 73¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 55¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 51¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 63¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 61¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 61¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 67¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 84¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 69¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 89¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 71¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 53¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan BUY Rebeka Masarova 64¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 645 history records