Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:04:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17f8…5b60 other 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 416d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$5
politics 31% $0
world 25% +$2
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +0.5% -9.1% 45% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 11 +0.5% -9.1% 45% 0% -9.0%
all 37 -1.8% -11.1% 43% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 3% -9.2%
10% -19.6% 3% -17.9%
15% -27.4% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.05 per $1 lost it wins $3.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

416d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage416d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $28 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $37 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $27 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $22 $0 -2%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 24 $102 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Harvard University cave to Trump’s demands before June? May 31 $21 $0 +0%
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? May 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 28 $19 +$4 +23%
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority? May 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting? May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April? May 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 07 $102 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $112 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 06 $9 $0 +4%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? May 06 $106 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 06 $112 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? May 05 $11 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? May 05 $106 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? May 05 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 5m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $24 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $4 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $28 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $26 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 30h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $31 38h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $31 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $9 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $11 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $19 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $21 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $28 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $19 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $8 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 12d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.70 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records