Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:10:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
17 0x17f7…a181 sports 1283 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$825 (+4%) realized +$595 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%473W / 804L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$272est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$200
14 days−$459
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$474
other 16% +$127
crypto 1% −$20
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -10.8% -19.3% 29% 29% -20.4%
≤30d 457 +1.3% -8.3% 31% 31% -9.7%
≤90d 1277 +0.3% -9.2% 37% 37% -6.9%
all 1277 +0.3% -9.2% 37% 37% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 37% -6.9%
10% -17.9% 36% -15.8%
15% -25.8% 35% -24.0%
20% -33.1% 32% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1.8908127508600572% → late 2.5423518025756002% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$12 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized+$595
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses473 / 804
Est. fees paid−$272
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1277 / 1283
History coverage79d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 60¢ $45 $51 +$6 (+13%)
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Nuno Borges 27¢ 28¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Aoi Ito 20¢ 26¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+32%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Maddison Inglis 19¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Shuai Zhang 37¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Martin Landaluce 32¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Lyon: Robin Bertrand vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Robin Bertrand 16¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? No 23¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Arthur Rinderknech 52¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Solana Sierra 31¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bratislava: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Emilio Nava Pedro Boscardin Dias 16¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Olimpia Milano vs. Reyer Venezia Reyer Venezia 20¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? No 26¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Tom Gentzsch 21¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Heilbronn: Pavel Kotov vs Guy Den Ouden Pavel Kotov 51¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 37¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Libema Open: Tamara Korpatsch vs Gabriela Ruse Tamara Korpatsch 25¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Vitaliy Sachko 44¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Raphael Perot Raphael Perot 26¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Ilia Simakin Ilia Simakin 32¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-06? No 19¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Heilbronn: Max Houkes vs Emilio Nava Max Houkes 23¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $17 +$29 +165%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $11 +$31 +276%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$34 +67%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $30 +$30 +97%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
Olimpia Milano vs. Reyer Venezia Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $28 −$28 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 +$33 +109%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $7 +$30 +414%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $23 −$23 -98%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $13 −$13 -98%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 12 $22 +$30 +132%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $21 +$30 +140%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $28 +$30 +105%
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi Jun 12 $12 +$31 +250%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $11 +$29 +262%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $19 +$29 +152%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $4 +$29 +712%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 11 $33 −$33 -99%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 11 $23 −$23 -98%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 11 $36 −$36 -99%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $55 −$54 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 11 $12 +$31 +250%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $9 +$28 +307%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $13 +$30 +226%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Miguel Damas Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Clement Tabur Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Tucuman: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 11 $13 −$13 -98%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 11 $13 −$13 -98%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $33 −$33 -99%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $19 +$30 +154%
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan Jun 10 $27 +$30 +109%
Ilkley: Alex Bolt vs Keegan Smith Jun 10 $10 +$28 +276%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $18 +$29 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $15 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 27¢ $11 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $30 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 37¢ $17 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 26¢ $11 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 13¢ $4 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 59¢ $51 22h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 32¢ $14 23h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 50¢ $30 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 23h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 18¢ $61 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 50¢ $76 27h
Olimpia Milano vs. Reyer Venezia BUY Reyer Venezia 20¢ $7 27h
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova BUY Darja Vidmanova 47¢ $28 31h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito BUY Aoi Ito 20¢ $7 31h
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler BUY Marc-Andrea Huesler 35¢ $11 31h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Aleksandar Vukic BUY James Duckworth 10¢ $3 31h
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Vitaliy Sachko 44¢ $23 2d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Enrico Dalla Valle 26¢ $10 2d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette BUY Magda Linette 30¢ $13 2d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 18¢ $6 2d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur BUY Adrian Mannarino 23¢ $9 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $30 2d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 19¢ $7 2d
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 37¢ $18 2d
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 28¢ $12 2d
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch BUY Darwin Blanch 48¢ $28 2d
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Kimmer Coppejans 52¢ $33 2d
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri BUY Francesco Forti 42¢ $22 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.06 · official $158.06 (match) · 2498 history records