Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:34:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
17 0x17f6…fafa sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$130 (+13%) realized +$165 · open −$35
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%16W / 10L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$164
other 7% −$17
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +7.3% -3.0% 62% 62% +7.4%
≤30d 26 +7.3% -3.0% 62% 62% +7.4%
≤90d 26 +7.3% -3.0% 62% 62% +7.4%
all 26 +7.3% -3.0% 62% 62% +7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 62% +7.4%
10% -12.2% 58% -2.9%
15% -20.7% 46% -12.3%
20% -28.5% 38% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$27 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$165
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses16 / 10
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage4d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 80¢ 64¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Ecuador 25¢ 24¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 56¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $101 +$87 +86%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 +$54 +105%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 +$26 +101%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 +$33 +65%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$32 +63%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $35 +$9 +26%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$30 +197%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$16 +32%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $86 +$57 +66%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$24 +119%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 +$13 +50%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $26 +$33 +128%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$13 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$7 +29%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 25¢ $17 32m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $25 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $25 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 81¢ $25 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 86¢ $104 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $50 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 3h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $101 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $51 6h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $15 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 33h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $25 33h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $25 33h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $16 35h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $51 36h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $10 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $25 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $15 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $50 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $25 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $25 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $25 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $25 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $25 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.43 · official $56.43 (match) · 65 history records