Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:25:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
17 0x17f6…603d sports 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$472 (+9%) realized +$472 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate67%49W / 24L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% −$3
other 24% +$21
sports 10% +$442
crypto 7% +$12
economics 0% −$1
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 -66.5% -69.7% 33% 0% -9.1%
all 73 +18.1% +6.8% 67% 51% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.8% 51% -0.8%
10% -3.4% 37% -10.3%
15% -12.7% 26% -18.9%
20% -21.3% 23% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×7.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.54 per $1 lost it wins $14.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$472
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses49 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage604d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $102 $102 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 01 $102 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 16 $103 $0 +0%
Will Ethena dip to $0.00 in March? Apr 15 $103 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 25 $1,053 +$17 +2%
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs NIP (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. Bucks Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 17 $340 +$327 +96%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 27 $2 $0 +8%
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Nov 01 $2 +$2 +108%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30? Oct 17 $1 $0 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 17 $1 $0 +26%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Oct 17 $1 $0 +25%
Will Ethereum dip to $2300 in June? Sep 08 $1 +$1 +138%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in May? Jul 15 $2 +$1 +61%
Will G2 Esports win the VCT 2025 Americas Kickoff? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 by March 31? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana above $130 on April 25? Apr 29 $1 $0 +5%
Will Elon reach #1 in Path of Exile 2 before March? Apr 29 $2 $0 +6%
Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference? Feb 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech? Feb 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during January press conference? Feb 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Biden pardon Fauci? Feb 04 $2 −$2 -100%
East coast port strike in January? Feb 04 $1 $0 +1%
SpaceX Starship 7th launch reaches space? Feb 04 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump say "carnage" during his inauguration speech? Feb 04 $1 $0 +18%
Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech? Feb 04 $1 $0 +12%
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? Feb 04 $1 $0 +28%
Will Trump say "America" 15 or more times during his inauguration spee Feb 04 $1 $0 +37%
Will Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during January press co Feb 04 $1 $0 +41%
Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech? Feb 04 $1 $0 +14%
Will Ethereum hit $4,250 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $1 $0 +19%
Will it take Jerry over 60 hours to hit a hole in one? Feb 04 $1 $0 +35%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $2 $0 +9%
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference? Feb 04 $1 $0 +30%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? Feb 04 $2 $0 +19%
Will Solana dip to $160 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $1 +$1 +35%
Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech? Feb 04 $2 $0 +17%
Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech? Feb 04 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney? Feb 04 $1 +$6 +426%
Will Solana hit $275 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $1 +$11 +900%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000.00 by March 31? Jan 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Broncos vs. Bills Jan 14 $2 $0 +24%
Devils vs. Rangers Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Kraken vs. Blue Jackets Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $102 1h
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $102 33d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $103 63d
Will Ethena dip to $0.00 in March? BUY No 100¢ $103 80d
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $1,053 99d
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $340 122d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs NIP (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In BUY NIP 57¢ $2 142d
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? BUY No 93¢ $2 229d
Kings vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 83¢ $1 229d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 BUY No 81¢ $1 230d
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres BUY Maple Leafs 53¢ $1 237d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 244d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 BUY Yes 79¢ $1 254d
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30? BUY No 82¢ $1 263d
Will Solana reach $270 in September? BUY No 80¢ $1 283d
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? BUY No 48¢ $2 310d
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 338d
Will Ethereum dip to $2300 in June? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 367d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in May? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 403d
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 415d
Solana above $130 on April 25? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 421d
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 449d
Will Elon reach #1 in Path of Exile 2 before March? BUY No 95¢ $2 499d
Will G2 Esports win the VCT 2025 Americas Kickoff? BUY No 66¢ $1 499d
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000.00 by March 31? BUY No 24¢ $1 525d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 525d
Devils vs. Rangers BUY Devils 61¢ $1 525d
Kraken vs. Blue Jackets BUY Kraken 50¢ $1 525d
Bruins vs. Lightning BUY Lightning 61¢ $1 525d
Stars vs. Flyers BUY Stars 60¢ $1 525d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.95 · official $101.95 (match) · 187 history records