Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:54:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

17 0x17f2…ca6a other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$163 (+8%) realized +$170 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$360per market

Trades / day4.3pace

Fees−$12est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$893now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-4.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+5.4%	-4.6%	60%	60%	+3.7%
≤30d	5	+5.4%	-4.6%	60%	60%	+3.7%
≤90d	5	+5.4%	-4.6%	60%	60%	+3.7%
all	5	+5.4%	-4.6%	60%	60%	+3.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.6%	60%	+3.7%
10%	-13.7%	60%	-6.2%
15%	-22.1%	60%	-15.3%
20%	-29.7%	40%	-23.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 74% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +15% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$181 vs −$181 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$893

Realized+$170

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Est. fees paid−$12

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$360

Trades / day4.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5)	England	66¢	66¢	$900	$893	−$7 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$405	+$251	+62%
Spain leading at halftime?	Jun 27	$114	+$141	+124%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$366	+$152	+42%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 25	$234	−$231	-99%
Germany leading at halftime?	Jun 25	$132	−$130	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY England	66¢	$909	1h
Spain leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	44¢	$114	9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$405	9h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	70¢	$366	13h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	65¢	$234	35h
Germany leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	41¢	$132	35h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $892.75 · official $892.75 (match) · 9 history records