Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:59:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17f2…adca weather 684 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$256 (-4%) realized −$224 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate69%463W / 208L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$3
14 days+$11
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$298
sports 0% +$4
crypto 0% −$1
other 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -10.2% -18.8% 70% 25% -7.8%
≤30d 414 -1.8% -11.1% 79% 24% -8.0%
≤90d 671 -6.4% -15.3% 69% 27% -12.2%
all 671 -6.4% -15.3% 69% 27% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 27% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 8% -20.6%
15% -30.8% 3% -28.3%
20% -37.6% 2% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$224
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses463 / 208
Open positions13
Markets (closed)671 / 684
History coverage86d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 671 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 17? No 92¢ 92¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 17? No 94¢ 92¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? No 86¢ 82¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 17? No 85¢ 74¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? No 74¢ 72¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? No 90¢ 74¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 17? No 94¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? No 93¢ 88¢ $9 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? No 70¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? No 85¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 92¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 83°F or below on June 15? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? No 62¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 16 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$4 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $40 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$6 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$13 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$2 -12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $20 +$7 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$9 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 14 $20 −$8 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $13 −$12 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $20 −$2 -11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $20 −$6 -28%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on June 15? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $20 −$14 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 86°F or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $9 18m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $20 39m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 94¢ $20 58m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju SELL No 96¢ $17 59m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 97¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? SELL No 97¢ $24 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY No 94¢ $17 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 85¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL No 96¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL No 96¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL No 96¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL No 96¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.13 · official $147.94 · 2380 history records