Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:26:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17f1…af18 sports 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$58,226 (+142%) realized +$58,208 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%35W / 463L
Whale WR24%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day60.1pace
Fees−$1,462est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$966now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$12,878
other 11% +$21,991
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-45.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 353 -74.6% -77.0% 3% 3% -84.8%
≤30d 372 -50.7% -55.4% 5% 5% -83.2%
≤90d 498 -40.0% -45.7% 7% 6% -63.8%
all 498 -40.0% -45.7% 7% 6% -63.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.7% 6% -63.8%
10% ← realistic here -50.9% 6% -67.3%
15% -55.7% 6% -70.4%
20% -60.0% 5% -73.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 24% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,767 vs −$203 · ×8.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$966
Realized+$58,208
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses35 / 463
Whale WR (big bets)24%
Est. fees paid−$1,462
Open positions7
Markets (closed)498 / 168
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$244
Trades / day60.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 498 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $240 $315 +$75 (+31%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $200 $210 +$10 (+5%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Over 5¢ 5¢ $144 $138 −$6 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $150 $137 −$12 (-8%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $150 $80 −$70 (-47%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $58 $73 +$15 (+26%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 468 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Team Heretics vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $275 −$275 -100%
Nets vs. Nuggets Jun 17 $318 −$318 -100%
LoL: ROSSMANN Centaurs vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO1) - Prime League Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Avalanche vs. Jets Jun 17 $256 −$256 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 17 $122 −$122 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Oilers Jun 17 $278 −$278 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Jun 17 $122 −$122 -100%
Ducks vs. Canucks Jun 17 $405 −$405 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,222 −$1,222 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO5) - LCK Chal Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs Leviatan Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $114 −$114 -100%
Zhejiang Golden Bulls vs. Beijing Ducks Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $156 −$156 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $273 −$272 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $126 −$140 -111%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $634 −$634 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $116 −$290 -249%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $672 −$672 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $1,582 −$1,582 -100%
Islanders vs. Canadiens Jun 17 $192 −$192 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $459 −$465 -101%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $30 −$53 -177%
LoL: Ground Zero Gaming vs MVK Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $52 −$51 -99%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 17 $316 −$314 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $54 +$1,154 +2138%
LoL: DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will PSV win on 2026-02-01? Jun 17 $178 −$178 -100%
LoL: VfB eSports vs ROSSMANN Centaurs (BO1) - Prime League 1st Divisio Jun 17 $289 −$289 -100%
Senators vs. Canucks Jun 17 $260 −$260 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs BIG - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $54 +$685 +1264%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Leviatan Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Cup Playoffs Jun 17 $1,131 −$1,327 -117%
LoL: Ei Nerd Esports vs RED Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regula Jun 17 $285 −$287 -101%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Leviatan Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Jun 17 $127 −$127 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Jun 17 $2,018 −$2,018 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 17 $35 −$33 -95%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $122 −$122 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $269 −$269 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw? Jun 17 $111 −$111 -100%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Season Jun 17 $22 +$129 +580%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $191 −$191 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $1 33m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $9 33m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $134 33m
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $130 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $58 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $154 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $247 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $205 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $965.67 · official $965.67 (match) · 3500 history records