Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:45:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
17 0x17f0…00c7 crypto 738 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$596 (-4%) realized −$343 · open −$253
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate78%551W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day32.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days+$149
14 days+$149
30 days+$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$730
other 25% +$25
sports 4% +$77
finance 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -4.6% -13.7% 47% 32% +3.4%
≤30d 117 -1.2% -10.6% 77% 22% -1.8%
≤90d 710 -8.7% -17.4% 78% 16% -11.9%
all 710 -8.7% -17.4% 78% 16% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 16% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 7% -20.4%
15% -32.5% 4% -28.0%
20% -39.2% 3% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$1,152
Realized−$343
Unrealized−$253
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses551 / 159
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions28
Markets (closed)710 / 738
History coverage76d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day32.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 710 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $469 $557 +$89 (+19%)
Will April be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 84¢ $195 $178 −$17 (-9%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $92 $88 −$4 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 90¢ 22¢ $238 $57 −$182 (-76%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 64¢ 10¢ $155 $23 −$132 (-85%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 62¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 72¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 81¢ 76¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 88¢ 76¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Austria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 39¢ 35¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 85¢ 76¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $15 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $412 +$70 +17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -88%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $187 +$109 +59%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $96 −$75 -78%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $52 +$8 +15%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $137 +$47 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 08 $5 $0 -1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 07 $15 $0 -1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $124 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $16 +$6 +37%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $34 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $11 +$2 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $11 $0 +4%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $33 −$18 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 29? May 30 $20 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on May 29? May 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 29 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $110 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $128 +$29 +23%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? May 29 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 29 $48 +$1 +1%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $48 +$12 +26%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $74 +$14 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $72 +$2 +3%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $63 +$9 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? May 26 $62 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 25? May 26 $34 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 25? May 26 $20 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $15 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 66¢ $480 14h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $482 14h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $412 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 66¢ $85 14h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $10 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 82¢ $11 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 100¢ $296 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 18h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $10 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 19h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $80 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 89¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 90¢ $11 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 74¢ $11 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $11 2d
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 56¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 75¢ $11 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,151.61 · official $1,151.63 (match) · 3303 history records