Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:00:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
17 0x17ef…9a2c sports 324 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$514 (+3%) realized +$495 · open +$19
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate60%192W / 130L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$251est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$173
7 days−$163
14 days−$464
30 days+$426
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$446
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -5.7% -14.7% 56% 54% -16.0%
≤30d 322 +2.4% -7.4% 60% 58% -7.6%
≤90d 322 +2.4% -7.4% 60% 58% -7.6%
all 322 +2.4% -7.4% 60% 58% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 58% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 54% -16.4%
15% -24.3% 44% -24.5%
20% -31.8% 34% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$57 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$495
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses192 / 130
Est. fees paid−$251
Open positions2
Markets (closed)322 / 324
History coverage21d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 322 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hijikata vs. Lehecka: Match O/U 22.5 Under 47¢ 58¢ $80 $100 +$20 (+24%)
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5) Hijikata 35¢ 31¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 126 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) Jun 18 $81 +$33 +41%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Jun 18 $41 +$52 +125%
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Amandine Hesse Jun 18 $0 $0 +20%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $37 +$31 +83%
Set Handicap: Karatancheva (-1.5) vs Buyukakcay (+1.5) Jun 18 $8 −$7 -98%
Dimitrov vs. Jacquet: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Lee vs Faurel Jun 17 $4 +$6 +134%
ITF San Gregorio: Angelica Raggi vs Natalija Senic Jun 17 $2 +$1 +70%
ITF Tulsa: Dhakshineswar Suresh vs Gavin Young Jun 17 $61 +$28 +46%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $30 +$11 +36%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) Jun 17 $112 −$110 -98%
Yastremska vs. Maria: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $151 +$34 +23%
Virtanen vs. Gill: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5) Jun 17 $17 +$14 +86%
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Nicolas Kobelt Jun 17 $81 −$80 -99%
ITF Ystad: Valentina Steiner vs Eva Bennemann Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $65 −$64 -98%
ITF Klosters: Jenny Duerst vs Elsa Bonelli Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Diana Marcinkevica Jun 17 $147 +$4 +3%
Set Handicap: Olmo (-1.5) vs You (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$2 +93%
ITF San Gregorio: Luna Maria Cinalli vs Carmen Andreea Herea Jun 16 $23 +$7 +29%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $203 −$100 -49%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $74 +$39 +52%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Etcheverry (+1.5) Jun 16 $39 −$38 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Kym vs Kokkinakis Jun 16 $10 +$5 +44%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: Chengyiyi Yuan vs Han Shi Jun 16 $44 +$13 +29%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $86 +$107 +123%
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jun 16 $51 +$49 +97%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $51 +$44 +86%
Set Handicap: Hesse (-1.5) vs Gimbrere (+1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$3 +124%
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Paula Cembranos Jun 16 $51 +$84 +165%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
ITF Milano: Luca Parenti vs Lorenzo Berto Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka Jun 16 $51 +$56 +109%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $20 −$7 -37%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $12 +$12 +99%
Carolyn Ansari vs. Barbora Palicova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Paul vs. Svajda: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $13 +$3 +21%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Borges (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $15 +$14 +89%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $13 +$4 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5) BUY Hijikata 35¢ $1 6m
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) SELL Zverev 100¢ $114 35m
Hijikata vs. Lehecka: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 47¢ $81 1h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) BUY Zverev 70¢ $81 1h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 100¢ $67 2h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 52¢ $30 3h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 65¢ $7 4h
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Amandine Hesse BUY Alevtina Ibragimova 83¢ $0 4h
Set Handicap: Karatancheva (-1.5) vs Buyukakcay (+1.5) BUY Karatancheva 42¢ $8 4h
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) BUY Quinn 44¢ $41 4h
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) BUY Quinn 35¢ $1 4h
Dimitrov vs. Jacquet: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 46¢ $0 4h
ITF Tulsa: Dhakshineswar Suresh vs Gavin Young SELL Gavin Young 100¢ $88 20h
ITF Tulsa: Dhakshineswar Suresh vs Gavin Young BUY Gavin Young 78¢ $10 22h
ITF Tulsa: Dhakshineswar Suresh vs Gavin Young BUY Gavin Young 66¢ $51 22h
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) BUY Alexandrova 37¢ $112 23h
Set 1 Winner: Lee vs Faurel BUY Lee 42¢ $4 24h
Yastremska vs. Maria: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 24h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze BUY Fiona Ferro 49¢ $30 24h
ITF San Gregorio: Angelica Raggi vs Natalija Senic BUY Natalija Senic 58¢ $2 24h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $185 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 73¢ $30 25h
Virtanen vs. Gill: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 25h
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5) SELL Minaur 100¢ $31 26h
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Nicolas Kobelt BUY Nicolas Kobelt 64¢ $81 27h
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5) BUY Minaur 53¢ $17 27h
ITF Ystad: Valentina Steiner vs Eva Bennemann BUY Eva Bennemann 54¢ $5 28h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 81¢ $151 28h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski BUY Maks Kasnikowski 43¢ $65 28h
ITF Klosters: Jenny Duerst vs Elsa Bonelli BUY Jenny Duerst 81¢ $1 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.45 · official $100.45 (match) · 619 history records