Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:24:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17ee…7b83 world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate56%23W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$5
other 22% +$3
politics 8% +$1
sports 8% $0
finance 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 8 -3.6% -12.8% 25% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 15 -7.0% -15.9% 40% 7% -10.4%
all 41 -1.7% -11.0% 56% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 5% -9.4%
10% -19.5% 2% -18.1%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses23 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage473d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $27 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $26 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $11 −$3 -27%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $64 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $29 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $10 −$1 -7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $4 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $30 −$1 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $20 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $70 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 20 $3 +$1 +28%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sorin Grindeanu? Jun 25 $16 $0 +2%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 13 $3 $0 -8%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 11 $17 $0 -1%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $14 +$3 +19%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $7 $0 +6%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $8 $0 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? May 12 $12 $0 +3%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Apr 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 12 $9 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? Mar 12 $14 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $28 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $28 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $26 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $26 36h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $26 42h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $26 43h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $26 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $21 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $26 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $26 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $32 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $32 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $4 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $24 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $29 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $9 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $10 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $29 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $29 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $4 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $33 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.35 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records