Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:58:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
17 0x17eb…a64b crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$66 (+11%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate76%13W / 4L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$51
other 8% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +1.6% -8.1% 76% 53% -1.2%
≤30d 17 +1.6% -8.1% 76% 53% -1.2%
≤90d 17 +1.6% -8.1% 76% 53% -1.2%
all 17 +1.6% -8.1% 76% 53% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 53% -1.2%
10% -16.9% 35% -10.6%
15% -24.9% 24% -19.3%
20% -32.3% 12% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses13 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage5d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $135 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $27 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $27 +$18 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 26 $27 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 25 $54 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $107 +$27 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $27 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $27 −$25 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 24 $27 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $27 +$13 +47%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $52 +$4 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $30 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $27 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $109 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $108 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $14 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $27 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $43 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $27 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $134 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $107 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $33 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records