Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17eb…8db2 sports 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,887 (-18%) realized −$2,037 · open +$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate23%21W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$228est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$970
7 days−$507
14 days−$1,349
30 days−$2,179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$2,038
other 16% −$181
world 7% −$25
crypto 1% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-57.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -60.8% -64.6% 15% 15% -23.6%
≤30d 34 -63.6% -67.1% 18% 18% -34.9%
≤90d 93 -53.3% -57.7% 23% 18% -31.8%
all 93 -53.3% -57.7% 23% 18% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.7% 18% -31.8%
10% -61.8% 17% -38.3%
15% -65.4% 15% -44.3%
20% -68.8% 13% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$74 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized−$2,037
Unrealized+$150
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses21 / 72
Est. fees paid−$228
Open positions10
Markets (closed)93 / 103
History coverage68d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Ireland 5¢ 38¢ $25 $197 +$172 (+684%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $29 $13 −$16 (-56%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland Scotland 31¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand New Zealand 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland Ireland 20¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands Netherlands 24¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh Bangladesh 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-47%)
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 Jun 26 $724 −$15 -2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands Jun 25 $28 −$27 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 24 $952 −$928 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan Jun 23 $247 −$240 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Jun 23 $82 −$80 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland Jun 23 $185 +$49 +26%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $592 +$1,094 +185%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $74 −$72 -98%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 20 $101 −$98 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $157 −$92 -58%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands Jun 20 $62 −$60 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $233 −$27 -12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $221 −$86 -39%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 −$68 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $329 −$321 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $125 −$122 -97%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $80 −$78 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $694 +$317 +46%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $99 −$96 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $200 +$194 +97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $346 −$88 -25%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $206 −$200 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $250 −$243 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $249 −$243 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $500 −$488 -98%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $149 −$146 -98%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $154 −$150 -97%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $43 +$21 +50%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $380 +$512 +135%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $145 −$136 -93%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $165 −$162 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $100 −$98 -98%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $157 +$6 +4%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $36 +$51 +142%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $33 −$32 -98%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $2 $0 -12%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $13 +$20 +149%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $157 −$83 -53%
T20 Series Pakistan vs Zimbabwe, Women: Pakistan vs Zimbabwe May 12 $11 −$11 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $108 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 10 $16 +$88 +561%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 10 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 3¢ $1 45m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 3¢ $1 46m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 4¢ $1 47m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 4¢ $1 56m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 5¢ $1 57m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 5¢ $1 57m
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 7¢ $1 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 9¢ $5 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 20¢ $5 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 24¢ $5 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 23¢ $5 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 7¢ $2 1h
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 SELL Yes 16¢ $189 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 9¢ $1 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 9¢ $1 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 9¢ $1 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 10¢ $1 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 11¢ $1 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 14¢ $1 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 12¢ $1 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India SELL Ireland 13¢ $31 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 31¢ $5 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 2¢ $1 2h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 2¢ $1 2h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 2¢ $1 2h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 3¢ $5 2h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 4¢ $5 2h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 6¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.98 · official $247.98 (match) · 910 history records