Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:11:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
17 0x17e6…86b1 crypto 115 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$403 (+3%) realized +$403 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate67%76W / 38L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day91.8pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$365
crypto 32% +$176
sports 29% +$463
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 +2.5% -7.2% 67% 57% -7.7%
≤30d 114 +2.5% -7.2% 67% 57% -7.7%
≤90d 114 +2.5% -7.2% 67% 57% -7.7%
all 114 +2.5% -7.2% 67% 57% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 57% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 42% -16.6%
15% -24.2% 28% -24.6%
20% -31.6% 15% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$53 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$403
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses76 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions0
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage4d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day91.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 114 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$12 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $38 +$29 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 25 $62 +$39 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $56 −$31 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$12 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $12 +$12 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $34 +$14 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $14 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $109 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $80 +$64 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$13 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $64 +$10 +16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,013 −$9 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$2 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $48 +$7 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 24 $39 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 24 $84 −$36 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $189 +$53 +28%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $507 +$103 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$6 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$3 +29%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1,215 +$315 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,309 −$71 -5%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $1,571 −$255 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$2 -10%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $512 +$63 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $36 −$14 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $58 −$21 -36%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$48 +94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $109 +$44 +41%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $106 −$57 -54%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $94 +$26 +28%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $109 +$46 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $44 +$30 +68%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $8 +$2 +28%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $131 +$48 +37%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $76 −$75 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $169 +$50 +29%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $67 +$24 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $9 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $15 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $12 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $12 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $21 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $12 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $12 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $9 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $19 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $6 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $7 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $12 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $8 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $9 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $14 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $15 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $19 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $500.00 · 437 history records