Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:50:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
17 0x17e2…d472 sports 393 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$741 (+1%) realized +$521 · open +$220
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%143W / 249L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$960est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$601now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$540
14 days+$624
30 days−$3,194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$472
other 3% −$757
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -6.1% -15.0% 37% 37% -3.9%
≤30d 191 -13.7% -21.9% 32% 32% -18.8%
≤90d 354 -7.4% -16.2% 35% 35% -12.1%
all 392 -7.0% -15.8% 36% 36% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 36% -10.3%
10% -23.9% 36% -18.9%
15% -31.2% 36% -26.7%
20% -38.0% 33% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$222 vs −$129 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$601
Realized+$521
Unrealized+$220
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses143 / 249
Est. fees paid−$960
Open positions1
Markets (closed)392 / 393
History coverage140d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 392 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Under 32¢ 50¢ $381 $601 +$220 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $258 +$504 +196%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $89 −$87 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $207 −$207 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $393 −$393 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $207 −$207 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 21 $200 −$195 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $219 −$32 -15%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $207 +$414 +200%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $209 −$209 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $224 −$224 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $88 −$88 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $298 +$365 +122%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $207 +$444 +214%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $301 +$409 +136%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $201 −$201 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 19 $210 −$210 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $339 +$761 +225%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $304 +$318 +105%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $245 +$398 +162%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $77 −$77 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 18 $72 −$72 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $156 −$156 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $156 −$156 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $123 +$277 +225%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $114 −$114 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $269 −$237 -88%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $216 +$200 +92%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $252 +$380 +150%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $157 +$306 +196%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $123 −$123 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $250 −$250 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $170 −$170 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $269 +$103 +38%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $147 −$147 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $253 −$253 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $136 −$136 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $208 −$208 -100%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $180 +$103 +57%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $97 +$83 +85%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $221 +$306 +138%
Will Cuiabá EC vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $265 −$265 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $311 −$311 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Blinkova vs Bondar Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $163 −$163 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $205 −$205 -100%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $227 +$826 +364%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $80 +$83 +104%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $257 −$257 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $391 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $258 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 26¢ $89 5h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 24¢ $200 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $202 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $190 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 30¢ $207 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $207 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 19¢ $187 28h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) SELL FURIA 100¢ $620 28h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY FURIA 32¢ $207 35h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $219 35h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $88 42h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $224 42h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $298 46h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 15¢ $104 47h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $207 47h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $209 47h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $710 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $301 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 48¢ $304 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $339 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $643 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $245 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $201 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $210 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 19¢ $156 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $77 4d
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 13¢ $72 4d
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 38¢ $156 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $601.08 · official $601.08 (match) · 844 history records