Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:06:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17e0…1e88 sports 1424 markets active 1h ago coverage 416d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Covers last 416d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,185 (-4%) realized −$2,174 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%518W / 903L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$90
14 days−$188
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$1,856
other 6% −$136
crypto 4% +$92
politics 0% −$91
world 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -25.7% -32.8% 30% 30% -42.2%
≤30d 24 -16.8% -24.7% 33% 33% -29.3%
≤90d 26 -23.2% -30.5% 31% 31% -34.2%
all 1421 -10.0% -18.6% 36% 34% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 34% -13.0%
10% -26.4% 33% -21.3%
15% -33.5% 30% -28.9%
20% -40.0% 28% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$22 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

416d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$2,174
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses518 / 903
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1421 / 1424
History coverage416d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1421 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 42¢ $28 $25 −$3 (-12%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 37¢ 18¢ $16 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 469 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $18 +$59 +325%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$23 -96%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 13 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$26 -95%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $57 −$56 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $74 −$73 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $94 −$49 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $56 +$44 +79%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $85 −$29 -34%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $97 −$35 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 07 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$74 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$70 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 07 $57 +$55 +97%
Will Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata end in a draw? Jun 07 $78 +$25 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 07 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 07 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 07 $14 −$13 -95%
Will Montedio Yamagata win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Perth Glory FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $45 −$44 -98%
Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State Dec 29 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rare Atom vs Morningstar (BO3) Dec 29 $44 +$11 +26%
Counter-Strike: FengDa Gaming vs Just Swing (BO3) Dec 29 $31 −$17 -55%
Ravens vs. Packers Dec 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Nuggets vs. Magic Dec 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pelicans Dec 23 $20 +$20 +100%
Avalanche vs. Kraken Dec 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Troy vs. Jacksonville State Dec 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Dec 16 $31 +$4 +12%
Raptors vs. Heat Dec 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Dec 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Lightning vs. Islanders Dec 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 13 $15 +$18 +122%
Nuggets vs. Kings Dec 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Dec 12 $16 +$91 +575%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 5AM ET Dec 10 $70 −$39 -55%
Devils vs. Senators Dec 10 $15 +$17 +113%
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5 Dec 10 $30 +$30 +100%
Avalanche vs. Predators Dec 10 $30 +$43 +145%
Knicks vs. Raptors Dec 10 $53 +$24 +45%
Clemson Tigers vs. BYU Cougars Dec 10 $25 +$21 +85%
Heat vs. Magic Dec 10 $48 +$106 +222%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO1) Dec 08 $54 −$24 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 11PM ET Dec 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $16 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $28 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $34 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 23¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $24 21h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 4¢ $2 21h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 8¢ $7 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $24 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 3d
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 51¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $27 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $57 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Boston Red Sox 44¢ $74 9d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 34¢ $25 9d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Baltimore Orioles 23¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $56 9d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Chicago White Sox 24¢ $36 9d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 76¢ $95 9d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 48¢ $6 9d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 20¢ $25 9d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Baltimore Orioles 26¢ $26 9d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 48¢ $56 9d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 80¢ $112 9d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 31¢ $44 9d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 11¢ $11 9d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 56¢ $56 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $47 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.15 · official $65.15 (match) · 3500 history records