Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:15:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17e0…64e7 crypto 452 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (318 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$74 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate30%262W / 599L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day317.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,109
other 0% −$7
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (318 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-48.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 672 -55.7% -59.9% 24% 11% -44.6%
≤30d 861 -42.5% -48.0% 30% 18% -20.6%
≤90d 861 -42.5% -48.0% 30% 18% -20.6%
all 861 -42.5% -48.0% 30% 18% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover317.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.0% 18% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -53.0% 11% -28.2%
15% -57.5% 8% -35.2%
20% -61.7% 5% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -85% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses262 / 599
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)861 / 452
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$60
Trades / day317.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 861 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 7? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $69 −$74 -108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 3? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 4? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 11m
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $1.12 (match) · 3500 history records