Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:45:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
17 0x17dc…0ece other 11 markets active 1d ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$14 (+21%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$6
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$12
sports 22% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.9% -14.9% 56% 56% -1.0%
≤30d 11 +14.5% +3.6% 64% 55% +7.2%
≤90d 11 +14.5% +3.6% 64% 55% +7.2%
all 11 +14.5% +3.6% 64% 55% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 55% +7.2%
10% -6.3% 55% -3.1%
15% -15.4% 36% -12.4%
20% -23.7% 18% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage8d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $23 +$9 +40%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 10 $8 +$2 +25%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 +$2 +116%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $3 +$6 +203%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 87¢ $5 32h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $23 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $2 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $2 6d
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 6d
Will India win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $4 6d
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $8 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 6d
Will India win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 6d
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 6d
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 77¢ $5 7d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 8d
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? SELL No 91¢ $3 8d
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 81¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records