Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17da…f6d7 other 16 markets active 7d ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$149 (-16%) realized −$149 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate88%14W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$166
14 days+$166
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$153
crypto 23% $0
other 9% +$2
tech 7% $0
world 4% $0
politics 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +82.7% +65.3% 100% 100% +65.3%
≤30d 3 -5.7% -14.7% 67% 33% -2.8%
≤90d 9 -12.2% -20.5% 78% 11% -26.6%
all 16 -6.4% -15.3% 88% 6% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 6% -23.7%
10% -23.4% 6% -31.0%
15% -30.8% 6% -37.6%
20% -37.6% 6% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$159 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$149
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses14 / 2
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage165d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $201 +$166 +83%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $141 −$140 -99%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? May 21 $18 $0 +0%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 27 $182 −$179 -99%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Apr 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar) Apr 27 $12 $0 +1%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85%? Apr 27 $19 +$1 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Apr 27 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 11? Apr 27 $196 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 03 $17 +$1 +4%
Jimmy Lai released by January 31? Feb 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of January 5 above $540? Feb 03 $18 $0 +0%
Clavicular in jail by January 31? Feb 03 $22 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA reach $272 in January? Feb 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in December? Jan 07 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records