Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:57:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x17d9…6136
weather · 45 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$2 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses33 / 8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)41 / 45
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day71.8
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? Yes 57¢ 94¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? Yes 80¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Yes 95¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 13? Yes 95¢ 89¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -43%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +71%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 12 $2 $0 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 95¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 58m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? SELL No 23¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +4.0% -5.9% 80% 49% -6.4%
≤30d 41 +4.0% -5.9% 80% 49% -6.4%
≤90d 41 +4.0% -5.9% 80% 49% -6.4%
all 41 +4.0% -5.9% 80% 49% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover71.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 49% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 20% -15.3%
15% -23.2% 17% -23.5%
20% -30.7% 10% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.79 · official $4.79 (match) · 88 history records