Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:04:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
17 0x17d7…9e1e crypto 244 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (286 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$4,130 (-30%) realized −$4,130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +108% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip
Net edge+60%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate46%121W / 142L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day285.8pace
Fees−$148est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$236
crypto 14% −$28
other 4% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (286 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+88.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 188 +42.1% +28.6% 42% 35% -10.5%
≤30d 263 +108.2% +88.4% 46% 35% -7.7%
≤90d 263 +108.2% +88.4% 46% 35% -7.7%
all 263 +108.2% +88.4% 46% 35% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover285.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +88.4% 35% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here +70.3% 31% -16.5%
15% +53.9% 27% -24.6%
20% +38.8% 25% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +108% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +231% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$4,130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses121 / 142
Est. fees paid−$148
Open positions4
Markets (closed)263 / 244
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$57
Trades / day285.8
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 175 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 19 $0 −$45 -9550%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $0 $0 +70%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 19 $0 −$14 -6346%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $0 −$1 -1145%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 19 $5 −$2 -50%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 19 $0 −$2 -1551%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Carole Monnet Jun 19 $0 −$2 -1301%
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 19 $0 −$4 -1780%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 19 $3 −$1 -28%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Maddison Inglis vs Alycia Parks Jun 19 $0 −$3 -2300%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 19 $0 −$2 -1952%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Prostejov: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Lautaro Midon Jun 19 $0 −$1 -1001%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Storm Hunter vs Aliaksandra Sasnovi Jun 19 $0 −$3 -2352%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Cuiaba: Gustavo Ribeiro De Almeida vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 19 $0 −$3 -2252%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo Jun 19 $0 +$40 +99647%
Lyon: Luka Pavlovic vs Daniel Galan Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 19 $0 $0 -356%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 −$14 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 −$14 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $115 +$93 +81%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $13 +$11 +79%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $14 −$13 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$5 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$46 +288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $37 +$23 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$20 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $97 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $97 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $97 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $96 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $14 18h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 8¢ $15 18h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 BUY Over 9¢ $15 18h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $15 21h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $15 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $14 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $14 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $13 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $102 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.07 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records