Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:10:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x17d6…600d
world · 13 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$637 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$526 · open −$110
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$378
Realized−$526
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage80d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 1 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$476
14 days−$463
30 days−$463
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? No 93¢ 72¢ $488 $378 −$110 (-23%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Ghana $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? No 96¢ $470 $0 −$470 (-100%)
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) El Gouna SC $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 13 $491 $0 +0%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 10 $471 −$470 -100%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $477 −$6 -1%
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $480 +$15 +3%
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? Jun 01 $483 −$2 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 21 $7 $0 -2%
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) Apr 29 $66 −$66 -100%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Apr 29 $56 $0 +0%
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 21 $9 +$2 +25%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Mar 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Mar 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will Iwaki FC win on 2026-03-28? Mar 30 $84 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% −$579
world 34% −$4
sports 17% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY No 93¢ $489 1h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $491 2h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $491 3h
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 96¢ $471 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $471 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $477 3d
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $480 12d
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $481 12d
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $483 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $7 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $7 23d
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) BUY El Gouna SC $32 45d
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) BUY El Gouna SC $27 45d
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) BUY El Gouna SC $7 45d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $27 45d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $23 45d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $6 45d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $27 45d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $24 45d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $6 45d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 SELL Yes $6 53d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 SELL Yes $6 53d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY Yes $5 56d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY Yes $3 56d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY Yes $1 56d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana $1 75d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana $1 75d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 75d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 75d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.8% -40.1% 0% 0% -39.5%
≤30d 6 -16.7% -24.6% 17% 0% -26.9%
≤90d 12 -22.6% -29.9% 25% 8% -27.5%
all 12 -22.6% -29.9% 25% 8% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 8% -27.5%
10% -36.7% 8% -34.4%
15% -42.8% 0% -40.8%
20% -48.4% 0% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $378.00 · official $378.00 (match) · 35 history records