Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:40:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17d6…f1e2 sports 283 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,929 (+5%) realized +$13,544 · open −$2,615
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%113W / 169L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$746per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$2,410est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$368now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,758
7 days+$15,409
14 days+$24,704
30 days+$23,759
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$6,375
other 27% +$2,029
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +20.0% +8.6% 71% 62% +7.3%
≤30d 134 -3.1% -12.3% 45% 41% +5.0%
≤90d 282 -12.2% -20.6% 40% 38% -4.7%
all 282 -12.2% -20.6% 40% 38% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 38% -4.7%
10% -28.2% 37% -13.8%
15% ← realistic here -35.1% 33% -22.1%
20% -41.5% 27% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$913) neutral
Persistence
early -21% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$870 vs −$517 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$368
Realized+$13,544
Unrealized−$2,615
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses113 / 169
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$2,410
Open positions1
Markets (closed)282 / 283
History coverage65d
Avg bet$746
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 282 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 19¢ 2¢ $2,983 $368 −$2,615 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 155 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $2,999 +$3,031 +101%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $3,002 −$2,934 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $1,000 −$999 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5,074 −$5,072 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $2,229 +$1,271 +57%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,015 +$946 +93%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16,784 +$6,023 +36%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7,248 +$4,554 +63%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $4,081 +$2,102 +52%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $2,887 +$1,237 +43%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,915 −$2,884 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4,187 −$4,187 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $497 +$503 +101%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4,080 +$3,920 +96%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $3,801 +$926 +24%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $3,482 +$1,518 +44%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2,000 +$3,264 +163%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $628 +$944 +150%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,524 −$3,480 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4,652 +$1,348 +29%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $131 −$130 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $3,473 +$291 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,924 +$3,200 +109%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $171 +$17 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $4,205 +$2,295 +55%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,570 +$430 +27%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 11 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $48 +$26 +54%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $2,956 +$1,809 +61%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $4,339 +$4,943 +114%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 07 $776 −$766 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1,470 −$1,470 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $1,427 −$1,427 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $3,480 +$3,467 +100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,222 +$813 +66%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,026 +$1,671 +163%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $505 +$1,493 +296%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $507 −$500 -99%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $1,499 −$1,499 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $700 −$692 -99%
Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 06 $800 −$800 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $1,029 −$997 -97%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1,005 −$990 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $2,270 −$2,270 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2,020 +$3,980 +197%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $63 −$13 -21%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Marvin Moeller Jun 05 $89 +$11 +12%
Makarska: Maria Timofeeva vs Yasmine Kabbaj Jun 05 $80 +$20 +24%
Will Malta win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $133 48m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $2,919 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 7h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2,987 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 47¢ $14 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 49¢ $2,985 8h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 28¢ $23 9h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 31¢ $730 9h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 31¢ $242 9h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 31¢ $5 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $88 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $4,986 10h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $309 39h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 64¢ $1,012 39h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 64¢ $908 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 51¢ $1,015 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 73¢ $16,784 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,901 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5,347 2d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 66¢ $3,055 2d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 66¢ $244 2d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 66¢ $132 2d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 66¢ $184 2d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 66¢ $13 2d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 66¢ $2 2d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 66¢ $10 2d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 66¢ $441 2d
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 70¢ $1,552 2d
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 70¢ $3 2d
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 70¢ $696 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $368.15 · official $368.15 (match) · 1532 history records